3 Societal Shifts That Will Reshape Health Care by 2035

Projecting what health care will look like in even three to five years can be fraught with challenges. But what about 2035? Leaders at Oliver Wyman’s health care consultancy have been busy studying this issue and reimagining what the field may look like roughly a decade from now.

In their Designing for 2035 report executive summary, the team assesses current trends, evaluates the undercurrents of socio-economic change that will affect those trends and identifies where there is significant potential for change in that time frame.

America’s aging population, workforce shifts, consumerism and technology innovations are among the forces that will reshape the overall economy and health care specifically, notes a recent analysis from the report’s findings.

3 Key Changes to Act on for 2035

1 | America's Aging Population Will Need More Care

The senior population is exploding. Between 2010 and 2020, the nation saw the largest upsurge in people 65 and older since the 1880s, according to U.S. Census data. Seniors now account for about one in six Americans, up from one in eight in 2010. This demographic shift will have the biggest impact on government-funded programs. Medicare and Medicaid will serve larger and larger populations, while slow-growing coffers will force federal and state governments to look for ways to cover care at lower costs.

The Upshot for Hospitals and Health Systems

Everyone may become a caregiver in one form or another by 2035. Seniors will make up about one in four Americans (26%) a decade from now, leading to higher demand for health services. Nearly 95% of older adults have one chronic condition and 80% have two or more. Since Medicare bed utilization is more than four times higher than commercial bed utilization, the report’s authors expect an increase in overall bed days, further straining government budgets. “Everyone will begin to act as a caregiver, with many sandwiched between parents and child,” the report explains. New tools and incentive models will be created to reward formal and informal caregivers to address the necessary expansion of the clinical workforce to serve the burgeoning senior population, the report predicts. Alternative care sites will spring up, helping seniors avoid costly and unnecessary hospital stays.

2 | Staffing Gaps Will Widen

The U.S. workforce is shrinking. The ratio of the working-to-senior population has decreased from 4-to-1 in 2015 to 3-to-1 today. Health care is not immune, with existing demand shortages for primary care providers, specialists and nurses. Burnout and the rising age of the health care workforce exacerbate this shortage, with 40% of active physicians 55 years of age or older. Staffing gaps, particularly for physicians, will worsen as the worker-to-senior ratio approaches 2-to-1 in the next decade. Projected demand gaps are expected to be 10.6% for physicians, 7.5% for specialists and 5.9% for nurses.

The Upshot for Hospitals and Health Systems

Across the board, the workforce will have more leverage and fewer long-term ties to employers, forcing employers to improve their benefits and employment packages, the report states. Employers will need to create more flexible work arrangements and career development opportunities to attract new talent.

3 | Addressing Consumer Expectations Will Become Paramount

Quality, convenience and trust all play into the brands consumers value. Health care is no different. Convenience is an overriding issue for patients when choosing a primary care physician. In addition, consumers increasingly are turning to sources outside mainstream medicine for health information, whether it be news sources, social media or search engines. Consumers also demand more from the brands they trust when it comes to broader societal issues, elevating the importance of environmental, societal and governance platforms.

The Upshot for Hospitals and Health Systems

With an increased number of voices and thought leaders influencing health care consumers, providers need to become more prominent in this messaging. In an Oliver Wyman video, Austin Chiang, M.D., Jefferson Health’s chief medical social media officer, discussed the importance of having health care organizations immerse themselves in social media to counter misinformation. Provider organizations also must demonstrate their impact on climate and social justice initiatives.

The adoption of advanced analytics and AI, more data and better connectivity will lead to a richer understanding of personalized next best actions, available when consumers and clinicians need them and in the manner that they want to receive them.