H-ISAC TLP White Threat: Potential Implications of a United States Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan

On August 1, 2022, United States Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced that she had touched down in Singapore, the first stop of her tour of the Indo-Pacific region. Pelosi’s tour will likely include stops in Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan. There has been no official mention of Taiwan. However, Taiwanese newspapers have confirmed her visit for Tuesday, August 2, 2022.

Analysis:

China has vowed military retaliation if Pelosi proceeds with visiting Taiwan. This is in response to the Chinese perception that her visit to Taiwan would be in direct violation of the One China policy of 1972 which clarified the United States' stance that Taiwan is a part of China but should be reunified peacefully with mainland China. It has served as the backbone of China/US trade deals and military peace between the two nations. However, China has taken Pelosi traveling to Taiwan on an official plane as a sign that the United States sees Taiwan as an independent country, thus nullifying a decades-old agreement between the two countries. Today, August 1, 2022, is the 95th Anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), placing China in a unique position of military readiness to interfere with any attempt from Pelosi to visit Taiwan.

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