CBO projects OBBBA to increase uninsured by 10 million, federal deficit by $3.4 trillion

Jul 21, 2025 - 03:37 PM
capitol hill 900x400

The Congressional Budget Office today released its estimate of the budgetary effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as enacted. CBO projects the law will increase the number of people without insurance by 10 million in 2034, as well as increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period relative to CBO’s 2025 baseline. This includes an estimated $1.06 trillion reduction in federal spending for changes made to the Medicaid program and Health Insurance Marketplaces in Subtitle B. Most of the reductions in this section can be attributed to provisions that implement community engagement (or “work”) requirements for Medicaid expansion beneficiaries ($325.6 billion reduction), freeze Medicaid provider taxes ($191.1 billion reduction) and reduce funding for state directed payments ($149.4 billion reduction).

Related News Articles

Headline
Court rules for Jefferson Health in denying closed-door arbitration of Aetna’s ‘level of severity’ policy, affirming AHA’s legal position
The U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania Nov. 4 ruled in favor of Jefferson Health in granting a public resolution to determine the…
Headline
Blog: Four Reasons the HHS Provider Tax Study Misses the Mark
A new AHA blog examines a Department of Health and Human Services issue brief that claims Medicaid hospital provider taxes increase employer-sponsored…
Blog
HHS Analysis Does Not Establish a Causal Link Between Medicaid Provider Taxes and Commercial Premiums
Public
A recent issue brief from the Department of Health and Human Services asserts that Medicaid hospital provider taxes raise employer-sponsored insurance premiums…
Headline
2026 open enrollment for marketplace plans to begin Nov. 1
Individuals and families can enroll in or change their health coverage options through the Health Insurance Marketplace from Nov. 1 through Jan. 15. The AHA…
Headline
Court strikes ‘medically frail’ definition in Medicaid community engagement requirements 
The U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts yesterday ruled in favor of 25 states and the District of Columbia to vacate the Centers for Medicare…
Headline
Study: Extending Medicaid coverage 12 months increased use of postpartum care for mothers with pregnancy complications 
Extending Medicaid coverage by 12 months following childbirth increased use of postpartum care among mothers with pregnancy complications such as diabetes and…